1369628 - A Methodology for Choosing Transit Service Reductions During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Question of Equity

Social disparities in public transportation were exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic due to transit authorities reducing service or shutting down transit lines. Choices for these reductions were mostly based on ridership levels and not socio-demographics, potentially leaving captive riders/essential workers who commute by bus without a means of travel. This issue raised the question: were captive riders/essential workers able to commute by bus during the pandemic? Rather than rely on an onboard survey, this research sought to answer this question with an alternative approach. This approach involved the development of three Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) models that highlight the relationship between the number of people who commute by bus along the selected routes and socio-demographic information. The bus routes that were observed are operated by CapMetro Transit Authority in Austin, Texas, and the socio-demographic data was collected from a radius of 0.25 miles from each route’s stop locations through the 2015-2019 American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates.

To demonstrate the application of the methodology, three routes that had reduced service levels, service cancelation, and continued normal service levels were examined. Results indicate that the number of bus commuters along the route with continued normal service levels is significantly related to people who work in the food service industry and social services. The reduced route’s noteworthy variables included people who work in education and healthcare. Finally, significant variables in the cancelled route include people who do not have a personal vehicle (captive riders) and people who work in the food service industry. Equitable travel was provided to riders along the continued route, however, the reduction and cancellation of the other routes forced essential workers, such as people in education and healthcare, to search for alternative forms of travel to commute. This method showed that basing route modifications solely on ridership levels might be flawed, as it could strip essential workers of their means of transport during an emergency. The application of this methodology could save transit authorities money from conducting an onboard survey, but more importantly, ensures a more equitable travel distribution.